McKinsey Quarterly 2023 Number 1

Aviation could be powered by biofuels and fuels created by power-to-liquid processes.

Projected volume of sustainable aviation fuel, by scenario, metric megatons

Power to liquid

Other biofuels

Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids

Optimistic scenario

Prudent scenario

51

15

42

7

12

20

22

6

2 17

6

24

9

15

10

6

2025

2030

2025

2030

Note: Assumed plant output for aviation fuel: 0.3 million metric megatons/year for power to liquid and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids; 0.065 million metric megaton/year for other biofuels. Source: Mission Possible Partnership; McKinsey analysis

Sustainable aviation fuels, produced from biofuels and power-to-liquid processes, have the potential to reduce net emissions by 70 to 100 percent versus fossil fuels.

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