McKinsey Quarterly 2023 Number 1

of the world to the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective vaccines were developed faster than ever as the public and private sectors collaborated closely.

Even in the face of war, governments and businesses have shown that they can mobilize, cooperate, and shift gears when the stakes are high. Just one instance of that is Germany’s fast-track creation of liquefied natural gas infrastructure to reduce its energy dependency on Russia. If we are indeed in the early throes of a seismic shift, what questions should leaders be asking themselves? They need both to prepare for the possibility of a new era and to position themselves to shape it: ● Preparing for the next era. Am I prepared for trends that could go in multiple directions? What shifts would leave me and my organization most exposed? What no-regret moves can we make that will insulate our business from unpredictability? Which leading indicators can act as early-warning signals for an upcoming change of direction?

● Shaping the next era . How active should I be in trying to set the course through the unresolved questions? How can I help steer toward better outcomes?

It may be tempting to let pessimism diminish aspirations and allow paralysis to jam up decision making. The truth is, however, that a new narrative of progress can be shaped for the next era. As the famous adage goes, “Nobody can go back and start a new beginning, but anyone can start today and make a new ending.”

Chris Bradley is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) and a senior partner in McKinsey’s Sydney office; Jeongmin Seong is a partner at MGI and a partner in the Shanghai office, where Jonathan Woetzel is a director of MGI and a senior partner; and Sven Smit is the chairman and a director of MGI and a senior partner in the Amsterdam office.

The authors wish to thank Kanmani Chockalingam, Anna Grebenchtchikova, and Camillo Lamanna for their contributions to this article.

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On the cusp of a new era?

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