McKinsey Quarterly 2023 Number 1
A defining leadership moment No crisis is ever the same as the previous one; neither can it be managed in the same way. Likewise, no industry is affected the same way in different crises. With the exception of pharmaceuticals, no sector showed positive returns throughout the pandemic and the more recent period of geopolitical turmoil. Moreover, in the current confluence of crises the vast majority of companies have produced negative returns. Executives have reacted to each disruption separately but with all-consuming responses; they’re fighting fires. But before they can recover from one, the next crisis is at the door. This approach is not sustainable in a context of continuous disruptions. Leaders are now discussing resilience as the essential condition. How can organizations arrive at a resilient stance, alert to what is over the horizon and ready to withstand shocks and accelerate into the next reality? Some think of resilience as the ability to recover quickly, but it is more than that. Resilience is the ability to deal with adversity and shocks and to continuously adapt and accelerate for growth . Consequently, truly resilient organizations bounce back better than before and go on to thrive in a hostile environment. They play defense well, and they also go on offense.
Q1 2023 Print Euro CEO Exhibit 1 of 3
Exhibit 1 Economic scenarios plot potential impact of disruptions on the eurozone GDP growth path for 2022–25.
Real eurozone GDP growth, 2022–25, ¹ index (Q1 2022 = 100)
Real eurozone GDP quarterly and annual change, %
110
1.5 α1
2.9
–0.1
1.7
4.4
Scenario:
α1
0
105
β2
–1.5
γ3
100
1.5 β2
2.7
–1.1
0.8
2.6
95
0
–1.5
90
1.5 γ3
2.3
–3.0
0.6
2.5
85
0
–1.5
80
2022
2023
2024
2025
Q1 2019
Q1 2022
Q4 2025
1 McKinsey and Oxford Economics scenarios, Sept 12, 2022. Source: National statistics agencies; McKinsey, in partnership with Oxford Economics
McKinsey Quarterly 2023 Number 1
84
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